3 at 3

Welcome to The Proposition’s 3 at 3. We had been on the lookout for a simple place to find a few picks a day to build a bankroll, round out some parlays, or attempt to beat any of the handful of prop sites out there, and to do so with as little excess junk as possible.

No analysis paralysis, no needless podcast banter, no endless embedded twitter links, just three picks every afternoon.

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Yesterday’s Rapid Rundown: 1-2

W’s: Bummer, with our first losing day in awhile. The Tony Gonsolin K’s under felt like a very good pick, and ended up being comfortably under 4.5 strikeouts. He just isn’t going deep enough into games right now, and if this line doesn’t shrink we’ll be on it every time.

L’s: Jose Berrios had 3 strikeouts through the first two innings, but ultimately didn’t end up going over 4.5, which felt like a rough beat. Like most things attached to Boston over the last couple of days, Jaylen Brown let us down by not scoring more points than Tyrese Maxey (23 to 26.)

Promos to be aware of:

• Taco Tuesday over at PrizePicks, usually a good way to make a couple bucks. At the the time of posting, the promo line up was Jalen Brunson points at 20.5 (original line of 24.5)

• Underdog Fantasy Pick Em: RJ Barrett over .5 pt free square

Pick #1: Joey Luchessi | Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

100% stats driven play here. Luchessi’s opponent, the Detroit Tigers, is 28th out of the 30 teams in terms of K’s / Plate Appearance. The last time Luchessi went against a bottom tier offense from that standpoint (Giants, 30th) he had 9Ks. On the flip side, when going against the best strikeout team (quite surprisingly, the Washington Nationals), he had only 3. Luchessi has always been a decent strikeout arm, and I think he mows down some Tigers this evening. Plus, have you seen some of those Javy Baez swings? He could get two himself, easy. This is what I will be playing with the RJ Barrett free square on UD.

 
Pick #2: Jared Vanderbilt | Under 5.5 Rebounds (-130)

Props can be a little trickier at the beginning of a new series, but when making this bet, I'm looking at consistency and combining it with my gut. Vanderbilt is a starter for the Lakers and most of his production will come in the opening quarter. After that, his minutes taper off as the Lakers go with the smaller/more offensive lineup and Vanderbilt averages less than 20 minutes a game. I don't think this changes against Golden State, as LA needs a lineup that can score to match the Warriors. This series will also feature Kevon Looney and AD, two rebounding machines (along with LeBron), who will be on top of the glass. In his last 10 games, Vanderbilt is averaging 4 boards, and this is likely only because his usage isn't that high. As long as he's not in there at the end of the game, AKA crunch time, I like the under 5.5 rebounds.

Pick #3: Toronto Maple Leafs > Florida Panthers | 60 min. puckline (+100)

The Leafs finally shook the first round curse and now they get a Panthers team who just reeled off 3 straight against the best team in NHL history. I'd expect a high scoring game (I also like the over 6.5), but ultimately expect the Leafs to win outright in regulation. They boast a top Power Play unit versus a bad Penalty Kill unit, and the refs this postseason are not afraid to call penalties. Back the Leafs tonight.

Record Year to Date: 31 - 22

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